Week 4 NFL Locks Using Implied Probabilities and the Law of Large Numbers

Today I will play the role of Santa and give you kiddies a great chance to make some money tomorrow on NFL picks based on some intense research.

So far in the NFL, teams that have been favored with a 60-69% of winning have only won 35% of the time this year. In fact, teams in the 60-69 range were 0-7 last week. This eventually must calibrate. In other words, more 60-69s must win. Therefore, this week I’m taking the Lions, Patriots, Cardinals, and 49ers as LOCKS TO WIN. Do a straight up parlay.

Also, so far teams in the 70-79% range have won 77% of the time. It’s calibrated, but if all three 70-79 teams win tomorrow, the winning percentage for teams in the 70-79% range will be over 80%. So, I pick one upset in that range and it’s going to be Brees and the Saints (26% underdogs) going on the road and picking up their first W of the season.

Finally, teams in the 80-89% have only won 75% of the team. Also not calibrated. I’ll take the Texans (83% favorites) to win.

For teams in the 50-59% range, I’ll stay away. too scary. Although, I will pick the Giants over the Eagles because Michael Vick is a turnover machine.

So my parlay for tomorrow:
DET, NE, AZ, SF, NO, and NYG
5 dollars to win $141.

LET’S GO!!!!!


About andrekhatch

Red Sox. Cowboys. Lakers. Penguins. USC.
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